Framework for the assessment of ship hull girder reliability and related sensitivity analysis considering accidental damage and ageing

Authors

K. Woloszyk, J. Montewka, F. Goerlandt and B. Sudret

Abstract

The present study proposes a comprehensive framework for assessing the reliability of a ship hull girder and its sensitivity to key input variables, with particular consideration of accidental hull damage and age-related corrosion. To this end, the physics-based model used to compute the ultimate strength is substituted with a surrogate model based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion. The reliability problem is formulated by incorporating both still-water and wave-induced bending loads. The effects of various parameters, such as vessel age (associated with corrosion progression), operational region, loading condition, and accidental damage, are systematically examined. The analysis reveals that ship size, operational region, and the specific damage scenario significantly influence the probability of hull failure, thereby highlighting the need for further investigation. The proposed framework offers potential application in risk-based ship design.