New paper published in Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics
In collaboration with M. Broccardo from University of Trento (Italy), X. Zhu and B. Sudret published a new paper on Seismic fragility analysis using stochastic polynomial chaos expansions.
The paper proposes applying the novel stochastic surrogate model called stochastic polynomial chaos expansion (SPCE) to seismic fragility analysis. The emulator is used to tackle the full conditional probability distribution of the engineering demand parameter conditioned on the ground motion parameters, which are selected as intensity measures. Then, the fragility function can be easily computed by post-processing the surrogate. Compared with classical linear models and an advanced nonparametric estimator, SPCE yields more accurate results for estimating both the conditional distribution and the fragility function in several numerical examples.
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